A Scientific-Technological Forecast - Approaching the 21st Century. Stage 2, Final Report

David Cohen, Ilana Shalev

Cite As:
Cohen David, Shalev Ilana. A Scientific-Technological Forecast - Approaching the 21st Century. Stage 2, Final Report Haifa Israel: Samuel Neaman Institute, 2001. https://www.neaman.org.il/EN/Scientific-Technological-Forecast-Approaching-21st-Century-Stage2-Final-Report

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The present report summarizes the data from the second cycle of the "Delphi" survey, initiated by the Ministry of Science during the 1999-2000 work years. This follows the interim report published in October 1999 and included the results of the first cycle.

The "Delphi" method is today one of the accepted tools in the developed countries for assisting in the formulation process of long range science policy. Crystallizing a science and technology policy on a national level is a very important task which must be based on an analysis of development trends in the different areas over time, on understanding the different economic and social advantages in different fields and finding the constraints holding up the realization of various potential developments. Collaboration of the scientific-technological community in this process is important for its success and may help in assimilating the selected policy and operating it in practice.

In the "Delphi" method experts of the first rank participate in a process, directly or indirectly, of crystallizing responses to these questions. The method seeks to achieve a maximal consensus among a group of experts in a specific area by repeated circulating (cycles) of questionnaires while allowing the experts to update their answers from cycle to cycle. The process provides the participants with anonymity and prevents dominance of part of the participants, as will occasionally happen in face to face discussions.

The present survey included a wide range of subjects in 12 scientific/technological areas that were recognized as being crucial for Israel in the long run. They were mostly based on a questionnaire in a similar survey held in Japan in 1997 with additional subjects recommended by the Ministry of Science and a steering committee that guided the research in Israel. Areas included in the survey are:

1. Information

2. Communications

3. Resources and energy

4. Medicine and health

5. Life sciences

6. Agriculture

7. Materials

8. Electronics

9. Production

10. Environmental quality

11. building and urbanization

12. transportation

In the first cycle a separate questionnaire was constructed for each area which included dozens of subjects – all in all 962 subjects, with every subject describing future technological-scientific development of importance in the range of the next 25-30 years. For the second cycle 25 leading subjects were chosen in each area, based on the findings of the first cycle, and a shortened questionnaire was prepared accordingly. Results of the first cycle were published in an interim report in October 1999.

The second cycle was intended to substantiate and verify the findings of the first cycle in regard to a selected group of subjects and to arrive at a maximal consensus among those who answered. By refilling the questionnaire (the shortened version), in which the results of the first cycle for each subject in every area appeared, the experts were asked to express their opinion on the following topics:

a. The year in which the subject is expected to materialize.

b. Extent of importance of the subject in relation to other subjects.

c. Israel's relative advantage in materializing the subject (this topic was included in the first cycle only).

d. The chances for commercially realizing the examined subject in Israel.

e. Extent of influence of subject materialization on the quality of life.

f. Main constraints holding up the subject's materialization in Israel (this topic was included in the first cycle only).

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Science , Technology and Innovation Indicators in Israel: An International Comparison (Fourth edition)

Daphne Getz , Dan Peled , Tsipy Buchnik , Ilia Zatcovetsky , Ella Barzani , Eran Leck

A comparative study on the scientific and technological research in Israel and some middle eastern countries, using quantitative indicators, second ed

Yair Even-Zohar , Daphne Getz , Uri Kirsch

A comparative study on the scientific and technological research in Israel and some middle eastern countries, using quantitative indicators

Yair Even-Zohar , Daphne Getz , Uri Kirsch

Evaluating the Infrastructure Program of the Science and Technology Ministry

Daphne Getz , Vered Gilad , Oshrat Katz Shacham , Noa Zemer-Batsir

Mapping of National Research Infrastructures in Israel: updated mapping of Israel research infrastructures and international research infrastructures, which are used by Israeli researchers

Daphne Getz , Vered Gilad , Bella Zalmanovich , Oshrat Katz Shacham

From Research infrastructures mapping stage until research infrastructure roadmap - Review the experience of selected countries

Daphne Getz , Vered Gilad , Bella Zalmanovich , Oshrat Katz Shacham

Predictions for human resources in science and technology :Models and Indicators

Daphne Getz , Tsipy Buchnik , Bella Zalmanovich , Noa Zemer-Batsir

Survey and Database on Israel’s Scientific foreign Relations on a national and institutional level

Daphne Getz , Bahina Eidelman , Oshrat Katz Shacham , Ella Barzani , Golan Tamir , Eliezer Shein

Towards evidence based policy in science communication in Israel

Yael Barel , Ayelet Baram-Tsabari , Ran Peleg , Rony Armon , Ayelet Raveh

Clean Energy Innovation Policy in Israel: Identifying Fundamental Principles through a Case Study of Smart Grid Policy

Elad Shaviv , Mark E. Caine , Gershon Grossman

Dual Use of Space technologies and satellites

R&D Activity, infrastructures and human resources in the civil space sector: Academy, Industry and education system in Israel

Daphne Getz , Tsipy Buchnik , Bella Zalmanovich , Noa Lavid , Ella Barzani

Survey to examine difficulties of nano technology transfer from the academy to industry

Daphne Getz , Vered Gilad , Bahina Eidelman , Oshrat Katz Shacham

Together but Apart: ICT and Productivity Growth in Israel (STE-WP-41)

Saul Lach , Gil Shiff , Manuel Trajtenberg

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Investments in Israel STE-WP-37

Gil Shiff

KNOWLEDGE-INTENSIVE PROPERTY RIGHTS (STE-WP-39)

Cristiano Antonelli , Morris Teubal

The Limits of Capital: Transcending the Public Financer - Private Producer Split in R&D (STE-WP-40)

Dan Breznitz , Amos Zehavi

What Affects Technion Faculty Members' Decision to Found a Start-Up Firm? Effects of the Business Opportunity and the Entrepreneur's (faculty)

Avi Fiegenbaum , Shane Scott , Miriam Erez , Oshrat Kremer-Srabstein , Moshe Givon

From Ivory Tower to Industrial Promotion:The Case of Yale University and the Biotechnology Cluster in New Haven, Connecticut, STE-WP-28

Shiri Breznitz

Start-up funding inefficiencies due to VC's Limited horizon, STE-WP-29

Eugene Kandel , D. Leshchinskii , Harry Yuklea

Evolutionary Innovation and High Tech Policy: What can we Learn from Israel's Targeting of Venture Capital STE-WP-25

Gil Avnimelech , Morris Teubal

Public vs. Private Technological Incubator Programs: Privatizing the Technological Incubators in Israel STE-WP-26

Amnon Frenkel , Daniel Shefer , Michal Miller

Monopolies in Competition:The Balance between Innovativeness and Competition in the Israeli Competition Law STE-WP-27

Michal S. Gal

Firm Growth Profiles (FGPs): Towards an Action-Based View of Firm Development STE-WP-24

Jonathan Menuhin , Niron Hashai

Can Venture Capital Funds Pick Winners? Evidence from Pre-IPO Survival Rates and Post-IPO Performance STE-WP-23

Yishay Yafeh , Hedva Bar

Immigrants in the Hi-Tech Sector: Comparison to Natives and the Effect of Training STE-WP-22-2004

Sarit Cohen Goldner , Zvi Eckstein

Innovation and the Limits of State's Power: R&D and Industrial Policy in taiwan in IC Design and Software STE-WP-21-2004

Dan Breznitz

Evolutionary Venture Capital Policies: Insights from a Product life Cycle Analysis of Israel's Venture Capital Industry, Science, Technology and the Economy Program (STE) - Working Papers Series STE-WP-20-2003

Gil Avnimelech , Morris Teubal

A Micro-Economic Approach to Government Support of R&D Investments in the Private Sector, Science, Technology and the Economy Program (STE) - Workin

Dan Galai , Zvi Wiener

Universal Banking and Investment in R&D Intensive Companies an Empirical Analysis STE-WP-15 , 2002

Aharon Shaket

Incentives and Invention in Universities, Science, Technology and the Economy Program (STE) - Working Papers Series STE-WP-18-2003

Saul Lach , Mark Schankerman

Financing R&D in Mature Companies: An Empirical Analysis, Science, Technology and the Economy Program (STE) - Working Papers Series STE-WP-10

Asher Blass , Oved Yosha

A first look at Internet Business Methods Patents, Science, Technology and the Economy Program (STE) - Working Papers Series STE-WP-12

Neil Gandal

Is Venture Capital Special? Empirical Evidence from a Government Initiated Venture Capital Market, Science, Technology and the Economy Program (STE) - Working Papers Series STE-WP-9

Hedva Bar

Conceiving New Industrial Systems: The Different Emergence Paths of the High-Technology Industry in Israel and Ireland, Science, Technology and the Economy Program (STE) - Working Papers Series STE-WP-11

Dan Breznitz

The Military as a Public Space - The Role of the IDF in the Israeli Software Innovation System, Science, Technology and the Economy Program (STE) - Working Papers Series STE-WP-13

Dan Breznitz

Quantitative Growth Effects of Subsidies in a Search Theoretic R&D Modal, Science, Technology and the Economy Program (STE) - Working Papers Series STE-WP-16-2002

Benjamin Bental , Dan Peled

The Determination of Success of R&D Projects: Evidence from American-Israeli Research Alliances, Science, Technology and the Economy Program STE-WP-8-2001

Oded Bizan

Cooperation and Competition in R&D with Uncertainty & Spillovers, Science, Technology and the Economy Program STE-WP-6

D. B. Silipo , Avi Weiss

Defense R&D and Economic Growth in Israel: A Research Agenda, Science, Technology and the Economy Program STE-WP-4

Dan Peled

R&D, Subsidies and Productivity, Science, Technology and the Economy Program STE-WP-7

Saul Lach , Robert M. Sauer

Sources of U.S. Longevity Increase, 1960-1997, Science, Technology and the Economy Program STE-WP-3

Frank Lichtenberg

R&D Policy in Israel: An Overview and Reassessment, Science, Technology and the Economy Program STE-WP-2

Manuel Trajtenberg

Do R&D Subsidies Stimulate or Displace Private R&D? Evidence from Israel, Science, Technology and the Economy Program (STE) - Working Papers Series STE-WP-1

Saul Lach

Innovation in Israel 1968-1997: A Comparative Analysis using Patent Data, Science, Technology and the Economy Program STE-WP-5

Manuel Trajtenberg

Environmental technologies - the green future

Ofira Ayalon , Avi Temkin

The global Environmental Market - An Economic Opportunity for Israel Primary model to assess the costs and benefits of governmental investment in the field of environmental technologies

Yitzhak Goren , Ofira Ayalon , Doron Lavi , Mark Sczabshvitz

Proceedings of conference- Business opportunities in Environmental Technologies

Ofira Ayalon

Space Technology, Patterns of Warfare and Force Build-up: Between a Power and a Small State

Deganit Paikowsky

Investments in Higher Education and Economic Performance: Israel in an international perspective

Amnon Frenkel , Eran Leck

The National Science and Technology Policy of Israel

Zehev Tadmor

Redefining Engineering Disciplines for the 21st Century

Zehev Tadmor

The Triad Research University Model or a Post 20th Century Research University Model, University Education and Human Resources

Zehev Tadmor

The Golden Age of Scientific Technological Research University

Zehev Tadmor

Interim Report of the Investigatory Team on the State of the Chemical Industry in Israel at the Beginning of the 21st Century

Gilead Fortuna , Yoram Avnimelech , Daphne Getz , Reuven Wachs , Ephraim Kehat , Zehev Tadmor

Science and Technology in the Israeli Consciousness

Eppie Yaar

The Ramifications of Technology Transfer Based on Intellectual Property Licensing

Niva Elkin-Koren

Data and Indicators on Aerospace Engineering, ICT and Biotechnology in Israel

Daphne Getz , Vered Gilad , Marian Shumaf - Tehawkho

The status of Israel and the Technion research in comparison to selected countries and institutes using bibliometrics indices

Daphne Getz , Marian Shumaf - Tehawkho , Yael Ilan , Gideon Czapski

Human Resources for Science and Technology in Israel - Selected Topics (summery)

Daphne Getz , Tsipy Buchnik , Bella Zalmanovich

Human Resources for Science and Technology in Israel - Selected Topics (Part B)

Daphne Getz , Tsipy Buchnik , Bella Zalmanovich

Human Resources for Science and Technology in Israel - Selected Topics (Part A)

Daphne Getz , Tsipy Buchnik , Bella Zalmanovich

Human Resources for Science and Technology in Israel

Daphne Getz , Tsipy Buchnik , Bella Zalmanovich , Marian Shumaf - Tehawkho , Sivan Frenkel

Evaluation of Israel R&D Plan

Daphne Getz , Vered Gilad , Eran Leck

Innovation 2012 An active industrial policy for leveraging science and technology and Israel’s unique culture of innovation

Gilead Fortuna

India-Israel Collaborative Business Innovation: An examination of its potential and forces that shape it

Gilead Fortuna , Gad Ariav , Liron Nadav , Naftali Moser

Evaluation of the NOFAR Program

Daphne Getz , Vered Gilad , Eran Leck , Iris Eyal , Miriam Asotsky

Outputs in Israel: International Comparison of Scientific Publications, 1990-2011

Daphne Getz , Avishag Gordon , Noa Lavid , Yair Even-Zohar , Iris Eyal , Ella Barzani

Israeli R&D Output: international comparison of scientific publications

Daphne Getz , Yair Even-Zohar , Bella Zalmanovich , Eran Leck , Gideon Czapski

ICT in Agriculture: Perspectives of Technological Innovation

Ehud Gelb

Policy on Levering Stem Cell Research through Intellectual Property

Daphne Getz , Niva Elkin-Koren , Bahina Eidelman , Miriam Asotsky , Bella Zalmanovich , Yair Even-Zohar , Yael Bergman-Eshet , Sharon Bar-Ziv , Talya Ponchek , Dalit Sagiv

Artificial Intelligence, Data Science, and Smart Robotics- First report

Daphne Getz , Oshrat Katz Shacham , Rinat Klein , Roey Tzezana , Shlomo Rosenberg , Avida Shoham , Ella Barzani , Eran Leck , Sima Tziperfal

Artificial Intelligence, Data Science, and Smart Robotics- First report summary

Daphne Getz , Oshrat Katz Shacham , Rinat Klein , Roey Tzezana , Shlomo Rosenberg , Avida Shoham , Ella Barzani , Eran Leck , Sima Tziperfal

Science , Technology and Innovation Indicators in Israel: An International Comparison (Six edition)

Daphne Getz , Tsipy Buchnik , Ilia Zatcovetsky

Artificial Intelligence, Data Science, and Smart Robotics Companies-Survey

Daphne Getz , Oshrat Katz Shacham , Rinat Klein , Roey Tzezana , Shlomo Rosenberg , Avida Shoham , Sima Tziperfal , Ella Barzani , Eran Leck

Technological forecasting for scientific and technological human resources

Daphne Getz , Tsipy Buchnik , Oshrat Katz Shacham , Eliezer Shein

Indices for Science, Technology and Innovation in Israel and international comparison. Key Figures

Daphne Getz , Tsipy Buchnik , Ilia Zatcovetsky

R&D Outputs in Israel / Analysis of Scientific Publications - 2020

Daphne Getz , Rinat Klein , Ella Barzani

Measurement of performance parameters in the Israeli Industtry

Gilead Fortuna , Reuel Shenar

Benford’s Law: A survey of its varied applications

Shlomo Maital , Ella Barzani

Strategic Competition – U.S. China 2022 – An Israeli Perspective

Gilead Fortuna , Shlomo Maital , Ella Barzani , Tamar Dayan

Absorption of Senior Israeli and Foreign Researchers in Israeli Universities

Daphne Getz , Avida Shoham , Eliezer Shein , Ella Barzani

Advancing the acquisition of competencies, knowledge, skills, values and attitudes in the education chain

Eli Eisenberg , Arnon Bentur , Avigdor Zonnenshain , Tamar Dayan , Inna Zertser

Home: Milestones in Shaping a Policy for the Return of Residents to their Homes at the End of the War

Meirav Aharon Gutman , Yaron Yavelberg , Gil Rabivo , Galit Wellner , Yael Eylat Van Essen , Moran Koren , Ron Kenett , Ido Rom , Nili Shchory , Maayan Shiri , Golan Tamir

Advanced Manufacturing

Avigdor Zonnenshain , Gilead Fortuna

Knowledge flow in Technological Business Incubators: Evidence from Australia and Israel

Tzameret Rubin

Science , Technology and Innovation Indicators in Israel: An International Comparison (Third edition)

Daphne Getz , Dan Peled , Tsipy Buchnik , Ilia Zatcovetsky , Yair Even-Zohar

Improving the role of Counselors for Advancement of Women's Status in academia in achieving better gender representation

Idit Salomon , Daphne Getz

National Strategy for Framing and Prioritizing Environmental Protection Research and Development Topics

Ofira Ayalon , Adi Wolfson , Daniel Madar , Naama Shapira , Maayan Zerbib Tsion

Science , Technology and Innovation Indicators in Israel: An International Comparison (Fifth edition)

Daphne Getz , Dan Peled , Tsipy Buchnik , Ilia Zatcovetsky , Eran Leck , Ella Barzani , Tzameret Rubin

Science , Technology and Innovation Indicators in Israel: An International Comparison (Third edition) English version

Daphne Getz , Dan Peled , Tsipy Buchnik , Ilia Zatcovetsky , Yair Even-Zohar

Science , Technology and Innovation Indicators in Israel: An International Comparison (second edition)

Daphne Getz , Dan Peled , Yair Even-Zohar , Tsipy Buchnik , Sivan Frenkel , Marian Shumaf - Tehawkho , Solly Peleg , Nava Brenner , Ora Shay , Galya Yohai