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Human resources in Science and Technology - models for Technology Forecasting

This work was commissioned by the Academy-Industry Relations Committee at the National Council for Civilian Research and Development (NCRD) and its purpose was to conduct a study that would survey processes and models to forecast science and technology work force needs and to test their suitability for the Israeli economy.

The first part of the work is a literature review of technological forecasts in selected countries. According to the common definition by the OECD, technological forecasting is a systematic process in which an attempt is made to look into the long-term future (usually five to thirty years) in science, technology, economy, and society, in order to identify strategic areas of research and emerging generic technologies that will probably lead to the largest economic and social gains. There are dozens of methods for creating technological forecasts, and most national programs integrate several methodologies to achieve this. In this part of the work the methodologies and findings of two national technological forecasts are described in detail: the British and the Japanese.

The second part of the work includes a literature review of models used to anticipate requirements and needs for work forces, models to forecast personnel and how they are applied in different countries (U.S., Canada and Ireland), and a review of forecasts in terms of occupation conducted in Israel in the fields of high-tech, teaching, health, etc.

The work was submitted and presented to the Academy-Industry Relations Committee of the NCRD in 2013 and can be downloaded.

At the request of the Committee, a proposal was submitted for continued work on the subject of adapting and formulating technological forecasts for Israel, with the objective of creating a document that shows the technological forecasts for the next five to ten years for the State of Israel.