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1-Day Workshop on Strategic Uncertainty in National Security

1-Day Workshop

Strategic Uncertainty in National Security

Tuesday, 26 June 2018
Samuel Neaman Institute, Technion

Six 30-minute lectures will be presented by Israeli and international scholars, each lecture followed by 30 minutes of open discussion.

The lectures will focus on diverse approaches to managing deep uncertainty in strategic affairs for national security. The workshop will be held in English and will include about 20 lecturers and discussants, possibly with additional observers. Participants include both active IDF officers, former officers, and other civilians.

The lectures and discussions will focus on a wide range of theses and approaches to understanding and managing deep uncertainty in strategic affairs. We will address the following issues concerning strategic uncertainty:

- nature and history of strategic uncertainty,

- geo-political context for military affairs,

- assessment and implications for defense planning,

- nature of current threats and their uncertainties,

- doctrinal and methodological responses to strategic uncertainty,

- relation between tactical and strategic uncertainty,

- intelligence analysis and strategic uncertainty,

- institutional dimensions,

and more...



9:30–09:45 Opening welcome

First session Chair: Yakov Ben-Haim

Douglas Macgregor: ISR and the Condition of Persistent Uncertainty

Open discussion

Doron Avital: Logic in Action

Open discussion

11:45–12:45 Lunch

Second session Chair: Chuck Freilich

Milo Jones: Strategic Uncertainty, Digital Technology and Formal Cause

Open discussion

Meir Finkel: Conservatism, Innovation and Adaptation in force design

Open discussion

14:45–15:15  - Coffee break

Third session Chair: Eitan Shamir

Rob Johnson: Decision-making in ‘An Age of Uncertainty’: A Critical Analysis of
the British Approach to Full-Spectrum Challenges

Open discussion

Yakov Ben-Haim: What Strategic Planners Need to Know in the Age of Uncertainty

16:45–17:15 Concluding discussion

For more information: